Have the Bank of Canada’s Interest Rate Cuts been enough to stimulate the Fall Market?

As we move into the final quarter of 2024, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market remains dynamic, with signs of both stability and uncertainty. While home sales have shown a modest increase year-over-year and new listings are flooding the market, the anticipated impact of recent interest rate cuts has yet to fully materialize. Buyers are benefiting from more inventory and a slightly more favorable mortgage landscape, but sellers face challenges in pricing homes effectively amidst longer days on market. In this recap, we'll explore key market trends, the evolving mortgage environment, and what these changes mean for buyers and sellers as we approach the end of 2024.

Market Summary

Sales Momentum: October’s sales increased by a remarkable 44.4% from 2023 and 33% from the previous month. This impressive growth points to heightened buyer engagement, likely driven by recent interest rate cuts and increasing consumer confidence in a more balanced market.

• Listing Dynamics: New listings rose modestly by 4.3% year-over-year but fell 15.3% from September, hinting that sellers may be holding back due to the approaching holiday season or expectations of better pricing ahead.

• Active Listings: Although active listings were up by 25.3% year-over-year, they decreased by 4.4% from the previous month, showing signs that excess inventory is gradually being absorbed by the market.

• Price Trends: Average home prices showed a 1.1% increase from last year and a 2.5% rise from September, indicating gradual price stability with slight upward pressure as competition picks up.

• Market Status: With 3.68 months of inventory available, the GTA remains in a balanced market, with a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 43%. This offers both buyers and sellers unique opportunities as the market continues to stabilize.

• Time to Sell: Listings spent an average of 27 days on the market, with an overall average selling time of 43 days when you take into account listings that terminated and relisted. This reflects the need for competitive pricing and strategic positioning as buyers weigh their options in a still-saturated market.

What's happening locally?  Toronto Market Insights

Impact of Interest Rates

Mortgage Rate Dynamics and Their Impact

On October 23, 2024, the Bank of Canada made a bold move by lowering its policy rate by 0.50% to 3.75%, the largest cut since the cycle began in June. While many anticipated that this would stimulate home sales, October's market activity hints that the mere expectation of the cut may have already influenced buyers to act. As we approach the Bank’s December 11 announcement, another potential rate cut could further drive purchasing activity, particularly for those with increased purchasing power in a more favorable borrowing environment.

Effect on Variable-Rate Mortgages: For adjustable-rate mortgage holders, this recent rate cut could equate to approximately $30 less in monthly payments per $100,000 of mortgage debt, based on a 25-year amortization. For fixed-payment variable-rate mortgage holders, more of each payment will go toward building equity.

Impact on Fixed Rates: In contrast, fixed-rate mortgage holders may see modest rate hikes, as lenders have started adjusting rates slightly. These incremental adjustments stem partly from recent U.S. elections and market responses.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

For Buyers:

The surge in sales activity shows competition is heating up, but with a substantial inventory still on the market, buyers continue to have leverage for negotiating and submitting conditional offers. However, this window of opportunity won’t remain open indefinitely, as sidelined buyers are likely to re-enter as rate cuts continue.

For Sellers

For those planning to sell, October’s sales momentum is an encouraging signal. As inventory often slows around the holiday season, there’s potential for fewer listings and increased demand from motivated buyers. If inventory continues to shrink, sellers can anticipate stronger competition and possibly favorable pricing dynamics.

In Conclusion 

With active listings still substantial but gradually reducing the market's balance will depend on whether sales growth continues into the winter months. The next few months will reveal if buyers will jump in now or await further rate cuts, which will likely intensify competition as we move toward spring.

Get the Help You Need:

Ready to buy or sell in the GTA? Contact us today for expert guidance and personalized support to navigate this evolving market and make the most of current opportunities.

Call Ben at 905-995-23372

The federal government is introducing 30-year amortization loan periods for all first-time homebuyers as well as buyers of new builds, even if it’s not their first home.

The government has also expanded mortgage insurance qualification to cover houses that cost more than $1 million, up to $1.5 million.

These changes are set to take effective Dec. 15, 2024.

THE BENEFITS FOR BUYERS

By stretching their payments for more years buyers can reduce their monthly payments increasing affordability and helping them pass the mortgage stress test when qualifying.

With mortgage insurance expanding to homes $1M - $1.5M more buyers will be able to enter the market in areas where average home prices are over the $1M mark with lower downpayment’s, including many neighbourhoods across the GTA. 

THE DRAWBACK 

The most obvious is that it will take longer to pay off your loan and that means you are paying interest for longer which means more interest over time.

HOW WILL THIS IMPACT THE REAL ESTATE MARKET

These changes may lead to an uptick in prices by bringing more buyers to the market, especially at a time where interest rates are coming down from recent highs. 

It is likely to have the biggest impact on homes valued just over the $1M mark by increasing the buyer pool for these homes which may send a ripple through the market and add to upward pressure on prices.

To learn more about how these impacts may affect your real estate goals, please reach out, we are always excited to share our knowledge and help you achieve success.

Is housing in the GTA becoming more affordable?

GTA home sales fell 5.3% year-over-year in August 2024, with a slight increase in new listings. Despite a modest dip in average home prices, the market remains well-supplied. Recent Bank of Canada rate cuts are expected to enhance affordability, especially for first-time buyers.

Market Summary

• Sales Momentum: Sales decreased by 5.3% compared to August 2023 and 7.72% from July 2024.

• Listing Dynamics: New listings were up 1.5% year-over-year but down 23% from July 2024.

• Active Listings: Active listings increased by 46% from 2023 but saw a 5.1% decline from July 2024.

• Price Trends: Average home prices were down 0.8% year-over-year and 7.72% from July 2024.

• Market Status: With 5 months of inventory, the GTA market is currently in a buyer's market. Sales to new listings ratio fell 3% from 2023 but rose 7% from July.

• Time to Sell: Listings spent an average of 28 days on the market, while properties were on the market for 44 days.

What's happening locally? Toronto Market Insights

Every city/town is unique as are the communities within them. Scroll through to find your town.

Impact of Interest Rates

On September 4th the Bank of Canada reduced it’s policy rate for the third straight time by a quarter point. The Bank of Canada’s recent rate cut is poised to improve housing affordability, particularly benefiting those with variable-rate mortgages. As borrowing costs decrease, we anticipate increased first-time buyer activity, which could stimulate the condo market and overall housing demand.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

For Buyers

Buyers will find favorable conditions with lower mortgage rates and modestly reduced home prices. The current market offers more choices, particularly in the condo sector, making it an opportune moment for those looking to enter or upgrade within the market.

For Sellers

Sellers in the GTA may experience a slower pace of sales due to the year-over-year decline, despite a stable inventory. With average prices slightly down, sellers should be prepared for modest offers but can benefit from increased buyer interest as affordability improves over time.

In Conclusion 

The GTA housing market is navigating a period of adjustment with declining sales and slightly lower prices. The recent rate cut promises to boost affordability and buyer activity, setting the stage for a gradual market recovery.

Get the Help You Need:

Ready to buy or sell in the GTA? Contact us today for expert guidance and personalized support to navigate this evolving market and make the most of current opportunities.

Call Ben at 905-995-23372 or Jim at 905-409-9967

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market favoured buyers in July with the inventory outpacing sales giving buyers lots to choose from and a slight relief in selling prices on average. With more rate cuts on the horizon, the Fall market could offer buyers a fantastic opportunity to strike.

Market Summary

• Number of Sales:

  • Up 3.3% year-over-year

  • Down 1.7% month-over-month

• Price Trend:

  • Average price down 0.9% year-over-year

  • Average price up 0.1% month-over-month

• New Listings:

  • Up 18.5% compared to July 2023

  • Down 9.3% from June 2024

• Active Listings:

  • Up 55.4% from July 2023

  • Up 1.1% compared to June 2024

• Market Status:

  • Sales to new listings ratio at 33% (compared to 35% in July 2023)

  • Approximately 4.2 months of inventory, indicating a balanced market

• Time on Market:

  • Listings remained on the market for an average of 36 days, up 6 day from June 2024

Despite a second interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada many buyers remain on the sidelines.

What's happening locally? Durham & Toronto Market Insights

Every city/town is unique as are the communities within them. Scroll through to find your town.

Impact of Interest Rates

In July, the Bank of Canada dropped its policy rate by another 0.25%. “We may be starting to see a positive impact from the two Bank of Canada rate cuts announced in June and July. Additionally, the cost of borrowing is anticipated to decline further in the coming months. Expect sales to accelerate as buyers benefit from lower monthly mortgage payments,” said TRREB President Jennifer Pearce.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

For Buyers

• Increased Choice: With a rise in new and active listings, buyers have more options to choose from.

• Competition: Buyers are in the driver seat for now, but as the cost of borrowing goes down competition is likely to go up.

• Move up Buyers: This is a great time to move up the property ladder if you are looking to  upgrade to a home with more space or property.

For Sellers

• Selective Buyers: With more inventory available, buyers are becoming more selective and less aggressive.

• Strategic Pricing: Properly pricing your home is crucial. It needs to be attractive enough to draw in buyers while still meeting your financial expectations.

• Entry Level Homes Remain in High Demand: Homes under $1million continue to generate considerable attention from buyers. Particularly entry level townhomes and detached homes that are well prepared.

Conclusion

July 2024 has once again been a month of balance and cautious optimism in the GTA real estate market. As we approach the fall market buyers will likely benefit from more interest rate cuts. With lower borrowing costs and a good inventory of homes on the market, this fall could offer GTA home buyers the opportunity they have been waiting for.

Call to Action

Whether you're looking to buy or sell a home, navigating the real estate market can be challenging. Contact us today for expert guidance and personalized service to help you achieve your real estate goals. Contact us today.

Call Ben at 905-995-23372 or Jim at 905-409-9967

MORE MARKET INSIGHTS (Durham Region, Markham/Stouffville & Port Hope/Cobourg)

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market showed interesting dynamics in June 2024. While there were shifts in sales numbers and pricing trends, the market remained relatively balanced. Here’s a detailed look at the market activity and what it means for buyers and sellers. Market Summary

• Number of Sales:

  • Down 16.4% year-over-year

  • Down 11.41% month-over-month

• Price Trend:

  • Average price down 1.6% year-over-year

  • Average price down 0.3% month-over-month

• New Listings:

  • Up 12.3% compared to June 2023

  • Down 3.5% from May 2024

• Active Listings:

  • Up 67.4% from June 2023

  • Up 8.5% compared to May 2024

• Market Status:

  • Sales to new listings ratio at 35% (compared to 36% in June 2023)

  • Approximately 4 months of inventory, indicating a balanced market

• Time on Market:

  • Listings remained on the market for an average of 20 days, up 1 day from May 2024

Despite an increase in inventory, the average price held relatively steady, showing resilience in the market and sellers not willing to sell below market value. 

What's happening locally? Toronto & Durham Region Market Insights

Impact of Interest Rates

In June, the Bank of Canada dropped its policy rate by 0.25%. While this move was expected to boost sales, the anticipated surge in buyer activity did not materialize. Many buyers chose to remain on the sidelines, as the adjustments in rates and prices were not sufficient to spur significant purchasing activity. The next rate announcement is expected on July 24th, which could further influence market conditions.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

For Buyers

• Increased Choice: With a rise in new and active listings, buyers have more options to choose from.

• Less Competition: The decrease in sales means fewer bidding wars, although prime properties still attract

  multiple offers.

• Opportunity in Luxury Market: The more expensive luxury market is starting to slow down and many markets are seeing homes sell below asking price. This is an opportunity for buyers who find themselves in a good position to buy. 

For Sellers

• Selective Buyers: With more inventory available, buyers are becoming more selective and less aggressive.

• Strategic Pricing: Properly pricing your home is crucial. It needs to be attractive enough to draw in buyers while still meeting your financial expectations.

• Entry Level Homes Remain in High Demand: Homes under $1million continue to generate considerable attention from buyers. Particularly entry level townhomes and detached homes that are well prepared.

Conclusion

June 2024 has been a month of balance and cautious optimism in the GTA real estate market. The modest changes in prices and sales, combined with increased inventory, provide a stable environment for both buyers and sellers. The summer is typically a slower time for sales as buyers direct their attention to summer holidays but good homes are still selling fast. As always we keep an eye on the market and wait to see how interest rates and rising inventory levels affect sales into the summer.

Call to Action

Whether you're looking to buy or sell a home, navigating the real estate market can be challenging. Contact us today for expert guidance and personalized service to help you achieve your real estate goals. Contact us today. Call Ben at 905-995-23372 or Jim at 905-409-9967.

Greetings, GTA homebuyers and sellers! As we step into June, it's time to reflect on the dynamic real estate landscape that unfolded throughout May 2024. Join us as we uncover the latest insights and trends from the past month, offering a clear perspective on what May's market stats mean for your real estate journey. At Jim Stanton & Associates, our commitment to providing you with valuable information remains steadfast. Let's explore together the opportunities and possibilities that await in the ever-evolving GTA market.

Market Summary: In May 2024, the GTA real estate market showed mixed signals:

• Sales Momentum: Compared to the same period last year, sales decreased by 21.7%. There was a month-over-month decrease of 1.42%.

• Listing Dynamics: New listings were up 21.1% from 2023 and 9.9% month-over-month.

• Active Listings: Active listings saw a significant increase, up 83.3% from 2023 and 20.3% from April 2024.

• Price Trends: The average price for homes was down 2.5% year-over-year but saw a slight increase of 0.8% month-over-month.

• Balanced Market: With 3 months of inventory available, the market was balanced.

• Time to Sell: Days on Market remained stable month-over-month.

Click here to view the TRREB Market Watch Report for May 2024

What's happening? Toronto Market Insights

Interest Rates

On June 5th, the Bank of Canada decreased its policy interest rate by 25 basis points. This is the first move since July 2023 and the first reduction since it began increasing the rate in March 2022 from its record low of 0.25%. The last time interest rates were lowered by the Bank of Canada was when the Bank dropped rates to an all-time low at the onset of the pandemic in March 2023.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

For Buyers:

Buyers are poised to benefit from the recent interest rate reduction, which is expected to increase buying power and push more buyers into the market. As a general rule of thumb, a ¼ point decrease in interest rates adds about $10,000 to the average borrower's buying power, though this depends on individual circumstances. However, with more buying power, competition is likely to heat up, especially for entry-level homes. Lower rates can be tempting, but remember that while waiting for further reductions, competition will likely increase. If you buy now, you pay today's prices and can always refinance at a lower rate later. Waiting might get you a lower rate, but you'll likely be paying a higher price.

For Sellers:

Luxury homes have been taking longer to sell in the higher interest rate environment. Hang in there; lower rates may bring more buyers. Expect competition to increase even more on entry-level homes like townhomes and links. These homes are always in demand, and these changes will only spur more competition. With rates finally starting to come down, now is the time to plan your next move. Information is power, and you only benefit by starting the process now.

Conclusion:

In conclusion, May 2024 witnessed a mix of trends in the GTA real estate market, presenting a balanced environment for both buyers and sellers alike. Despite fluctuations in sales compared to last year, there was a notable month-over-month decrease. The surge in new and active listings indicates a healthy influx of properties, while pricing trends remained relatively stable. With inventory levels maintaining a balance, the market is poised for potential changes depending on the upcoming interest rate adjustments. Looking ahead, proactive engagement will be key for both buyers and sellers to capitalize on emerging opportunities. At Jim Stanton & Associates, we're dedicated to providing the guidance and support necessary for navigating this dynamic landscape effectively.

Get the Help You Need:

Regardless of the statistics and the market, you have your own reasons for making a move. A big life event, ambitions, the need to upsize or downsize, or even relocate. The key is to ensure you have someone in your corner representing your best interests. Let us be your guide. Contact Us Today!

Call Ben at 905-995-3372

January Market Update

 In January 2024, the average selling price of homes across the GTA experienced a one percent year-over-year decline, settling at $1,026,703 according to The MLS® Home Price Index Composite. While home sales increased compared to the same month in 2023. This rise was partly due to certain homebuyers taking advantage of lower interest rates linked to fixed-rate mortgages. While new property listings also saw a year-over-year increase, the growth rate was lower than that of home sales. The resulting tighter market conditions, compared to the previous year, suggest the possibility of renewed price growth as we transition into the spring market. Essentially, the increased demand, coupled with a more modest increase in available homes, may contribute to a potential uptick in housing prices.

 Toronto Market Insights

1920x965-January 2024 Market Stats Toronto by Ben Stanton

What we are seeing on the ground

In a market characterized by both increased sales and a surge in property listings, home buyers and sellers find themselves navigating a dynamic and competitive landscape. The spike in listings provides buyers with a broader array of options, but the heightened demand, particularly in the lower price range, has resulted in more properties receiving multiple offers. Despite the competitive atmosphere, there remains ample opportunity for savvy buyers to find a suitable property and engage in negotiations. Sellers, on the other hand, are benefiting from the renewed demand, potentially receiving more attractive offers. Overall, the market's equilibrium between increased sales and listings creates an environment where both buyers and sellers must adapt to changing dynamics while recognizing opportunities for successful transactions.

 In a news release the federal government has announced that it will be extending the: Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act,

Known as “the Foreign Buyers Ban” for an additional 2 years. This means the ban on foreign buyers will be in place until at least 2027. 

Key Highlights of the Act include:

• The Act defines residential property as buildings with 3 dwelling units or less. This includes semi-detached houses and condominium units. The Act doesn’t prohibit the purchase of larger buildings with 4 or more dwelling units.
• Non-Canadians can purchase residential properties located outside of Census Metropolitan Areas (CMA) and Census Agglomerations (CA). CMA is defined as having a population of over 100,000 with 50,000 or more living in the core. CA defined as having a population of over 10,000.

*contact me today to find out what areas are not included in this ban.

• Certain exceptions apply allowing Non-Canadians to purchase a residential property in defined circumstances. Including temporary residents working or studying in Canada, refugees and non-Canadian spouses or common law partners buying with their partner or spouse who is Canadian or has an exemption.
• If a non-Canadian, or anyone who knowingly assists a non-Canadian, is convicted of violating the prohibition, they will have to pay a fine of up to $10,000. Additionally, a court can order the sale of the residential property.

Source: CMHC

 I hope you found this information helpful and please feel free to reach out if you have any questions relating to this or anything else real estate related.

The city of Toronto says on its website that the goal of the Vacant Home Tax (VHT) is to increase the supply of housing by discouraging owners from leaving their residential properties unoccupied. Homeowners who choose to keep their properties vacant will be subject to a tax of one percent of the property's Current Value Assessment. Revenues collected from the Vacant Home Tax will be allocated towards affordable housing initiatives.

Owners of properties in Toronto that are classified within the residential property tax class are required to declare occupancy status every year. The deadline to declare is February 29, 2024.

Use the URL below to get to the City of Toronto webpage to submit your declaration.

https://www.toronto.ca/services-payments/property-taxes-utilities/vacant-home-tax/vacant-home-tax-declaration-of-occupancy-status/

If you do not qualify for an exemption, the city will send you a notice at the end of March showing your VHT amount owing. Payment will be due in three installments in May, June and July.

What’s next: A Reflection on 2023 and a look ahead to 2024

2023 Summary for the GTA

Home sales were down in 2023. Buyers who stuck it out through higher interest rates in 2023 benefited from more choice and more negotiating power which resulted in paying lower prices when compared to 2022. 

• Home Sales saw a 12.1 per cent dip compared to 2022.

• Average sold prices across home types in 2023 saw a 5.4 per cent decline compared to 2022 bringing average sold price down to $1,126,604.

Outlook for 2024

There is little consensus on the future of the real estate market in 2024. Aside from the fact that most experts expect some relief in the Bank of Canada’s Policy rate which should help with borrowing costs for homeowners and would-be buyers. Experts are divided on exactly when, how many and how big an impact interest rate cuts will have. 

The main factors affecting real estate forecasts in 2024.

• When and how much will the BoC reduce its policy rate in 2024? (2024 BoC announcement schedule)

• Will changes in variable and fixed rate mortgages be enough to bring buyers back?

• How will homeowners up for renewal deal with rising financing costs?

2 Potential Outcomes and Everything in Between

A Return to a Sellers Market

If interest rates do come down in 2024 we will see more buyers enter the market. The question is, how many rate cuts could we see and how low could rates go? In March of 2023 a mere pause at 4.5% sent us back into a brief Sellers Market. If that happens again buyers who stay on the fence will regret it. It’s unlikely that we see the kind of pandemic sales we saw but it remains possible that the combination of high immigration, rising rent costs and lower interest rates increases competition for homes in 2024.

A Balanced Market

An environment with modestly lower interest rates could yield a continuation of the current balanced market. This is especially true if inventory remains at 3-4 months worth. Sellers looking to downsize, move up or relocate may be more likely to move when interest rates drop and sellers who are renewing mortgages at a cost that may be too high might decide to sell. This would bring more homes on the market and offset any increases in demand. This seems like the safe bet and most likely outcome to us.

For the Doom Scrollers

The other possibility is for those who love bad news. According to RateHub.ca 80% of all mortgages that were outstanding as of March 2022 will come up for renewal in 2024. That means those borrowers will be renewing at a much higher rate. Per Statistics Canada, mortgage interest payments have soared by nearly 90% since March 2022. Some are forecasting a high volume of distressed sales which if enough homes come on the market without buyers continue to put downward pressure on home prices throughout 2024. This inventory of course would have to outpace demand from new buyers entering the market as interest rates come down. Another factor of note is that for 2024 alone this pool only represents 14% of all mortgages in Canada which relative to the total number of homeowners is very small and Canada’s mortgage stress test will have buffered some of the risk for many of these homeowners.

Our Point of View

For our part the most likely scenario is a balanced market where the push/pull effect of higher interest rates pushing some buyers off and some sellers in while immigration and a slow reduction in interest rates bolster demand could offset one another enough to balance the market in 2024. 

That said if interest rates become too attractive and more buyers enter the market we could see competition for homes pick-up in 2024.

What do you think will happen in 2024?