February Market Watch: Homebuyers continued to benefit from substantial choice in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) resale market in February 2025.

As we move into the spring market, the February 2025 housing data from TRREB highlights a market in transition. While sales activity showed a modest month-over-month increase, year-over-year figures remain significantly lower. Interest rate shifts, buyer sentiment, and a glut of condo inventory continue to shape market conditions across the Greater Toronto Area.

Market Dynamics

• Total Sales: The GTA saw sales dip year-over-year to 4,037 (-27.4% YoY, +4.9% MoM)

• Average Selling Price: Selling Prices remained relatively stable averaging $1,084,547 (-4.1% YoY, +1.2% MoM)

• New Listings: February saw new listings grow year over-year up 5.4% to 12,066 and down 2.6% from January.

• Active Listings: Inventory remains significantly elevated, with year-over-year growth in available properties up 76% and 13.9% above January.

• Days on Market:

  • Listing DOM: Listings sell on average in 28 days (+12.0% YoY, -24.3% MoM)

  • Property DOM: Listings that terminate and re-list are on for 43 days (+16.2% YoY, -21.8% MoM)

What's happening locally? Toronto Market Insights

Interest Rate & Mortgage Trends

The Bank of Canada (BoC) initiated its first rate cut of the year in January, bringing the policy rate down to 3.00%, and another cut to 2.75% is anticipated in March. This shift is a response to slowing economic activity and declining inflation. Lower borrowing costs are beginning to make homeownership more accessible for some buyers, particularly those considering variable-rate mortgages.

Meanwhile, fixed mortgage rates have also seen downward pressure, reflecting declining 5-year bond yields. As the bond market anticipates further BoC rate cuts, we may see fixed-rate mortgages continue to decrease, offering buyers improved affordability.

Key Market Observations

1. Sales Remain Subdued, but Price Stability Emerges

   • While sales volumes are down significantly year-over-year, average prices are showing signs of stabilization. Month-over-month growth in pricing suggests some resilience in the market, particularly for well-priced freehold homes.

2. More Listings, Longer Selling Timelines

   • New listings continue to rise, contributing to a more balanced market. While sellers must be strategic with pricing, buyers have greater selection and negotiation power.

3. The Condo Market Faces Headwinds

   • In contrast to freehold properties, GTA condos continue to struggle with an oversupply of listings. With more than six months of inventory in some areas, the condo segment remains firmly in a buyer’s market, placing downward pressure on prices and extending selling timelines.

4. Economic Uncertainty from Trade War Looms

   • The ongoing trade war between the U.S. and Canada, particularly new tariffs on Canadian exports, has introduced economic uncertainty that could impact job markets and consumer confidence. While the full effect on housing remains unclear, uncertainty makes it difficult to predict long-term trends, keeping both buyers and sellers cautious.

What This Means for Buyers & Sellers

For Buyers:

• The market remains favourable for those looking to purchase, with more options and improving affordability as interest rates decline.

• Condos, in particular, offer strong negotiation opportunities due to elevated inventory levels.

• Well-priced properties in desirable areas are still attracting competition, so preparation and decisive action remain important.

For Sellers:

• While prices are showing some stability, strategic pricing and strong presentation are key to attracting serious buyers.

• Homes are taking longer to sell, meaning sellers should be prepared for extended timelines compared to previous years.

• Freehold properties continue to see steady demand, though pricing realistically in the current market is crucial.

Final Thoughts

The GTA real estate market is evolving as interest rates shift and inventory levels rebalance. While challenges persist, particularly in the condo segment, the broader market is adjusting to more balanced conditions. However, the uncertainty surrounding the ongoing trade war adds an additional layer of complexity, making it difficult to predict the long-term trajectory of housing demand.

As we enter the spring market, staying informed and working with experienced professionals will be key to making the right real estate decisions.

Thinking about buying or selling? Contact us today to navigate the market with confidence!

Call Ben at 905-995-23372

MORE MARKET INSIGHTS (All of Durham Region Markham/Stouffville & Port Hope/Cobourg)

December Market Watch: Seasonal Slowdown Sets the Stage for 2025 Opportunities

As expected, December brought a seasonal cooldown to the GTA housing market. With fewer listings, softened sales, and mixed price trends, both buyers and sellers can find unique opportunities in this quieter time of year. Here’s what the latest data reveals and what it could mean for you.

Market Dynamics

Sales Momentum: December 2024 saw a predictable dip in sales activity, declining 1.8% year-over-year and a significant 43% month-over-month, following November's remarkable 40% year-over-year surge. The seasonal slowdown reflects the typical December pattern as the market winds down for the holidays.

Listing Dynamics: New listings dropped sharply, down nearly 60% from November, but remained 20% higher than December 2023 levels. Active listings, meanwhile, were up 48.5% year-over-year, indicating an inventory buildup compared to the prior December but a noticeable contraction compared to the fall months.

Price Trends: The average sale price for December landed at $1,067,186, down 1.6% year-over-year and 3.5% month-over-month. Looking at the bigger picture, the average sale price for 2024 across all home types came in at $1,117,600—a modest 0.8% dip compared to 2023’s $1,126,263.

Market Status: Listings spent an average of 36 days on the market in December, while total property days on market, including relisted homes, averaged 56 days. These figures underscore the slower pace of activity that defines this time of year.

What's happening locally? Toronto Market Insights

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Impact of Interest Rates

Impact of Mortgage Rates

The Bank of Canada delivered another rate cut on December 11, reducing the benchmark rate by 0.50%. This move offers relief to variable-rate mortgage holders and those seeking new variable-rate options. However, fixed mortgage rates edged higher earlier in the month, following a lagging response to increased bond yields from the fall. Looking ahead, industry experts anticipate fixed rates will decrease in 2025 as lenders compete for the attention of the 1.2 million Canadians facing mortgage renewals next year.

The next Bank of Canada announcement is on January 24th.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

For Buyers:

December can present hidden gems for savvy buyers. With fewer active shoppers in the market, competition is reduced, providing more room for negotiation. If you’re able to find a home that fits your needs, you might secure a great deal ahead of the busier spring market.

For Sellers:

A quieter December market can actually work in your favor, with fewer competing listings vying for buyer attention. If your home is well-prepared and strategically marketed, it has the potential to stand out and attract serious buyers. Alternatively, December is an excellent time to prepare for a spring listing, ensuring your home is in prime condition to capitalize on early 2025 demand.

In Conclusion 

The December market slowdown is a natural conclusion to the year, but it sets the stage for exciting opportunities in 2025. With interest rates shifting, inventory tightening, and buyer activity expected to pick up, now is the time to plan your next move strategically.

Get the Help You Need:

Ready to buy or sell in the GTA? Contact us today for expert advice and tailored support to navigate this evolving market. Let’s make 2025 your most successful year yet.

Call Ben at 905-995-23372 or Jim at 905-409-9967

MORE MARKET INSIGHTS (Markham/Stouffville & Port Hope/Cobourg)